Once again we look to the evening cards in search of some horses of interest. Instead of highlighting the more obvious contenders, I thought why not suggest a few outsiders that could outrun likely double figure odds at tonight’s pair of meetings on the flat at Kempton Park and Wetherby.
6.40 – Now Then – 40/1
Kevin Ryan isn’t operating at quiet the strike rate he’d like at the moment, but the yard is steadily finding the net and he has a fair record with horses sent to Wetherby in recent years. This Duke Of Marmalade filly has a decent pedigree on the dam side and it would be little surprise if she built on her effort when 9th of 17 on debut at Nottingham last month. The 1st, 2nd and 4th in that race all came out and won next time to frank the form, but most notable is the subsequently improved efforts of several horses who’ve been out since, but not won. Now Then is the next to advertise the form and you’d expect her to produce a bit more here than on debut. Whether that’s enough to get her into the frame remains to be seen, but she’s a big price and hopefully won’t disgrace herself.
7.40 – Marylebone – 50/1
This 5yo Shamardal gelding has seen his official rating tumble in recent months, from a high of 80 down to 65 today and there is some hope that today’s conditions will see David Griffiths’ charge turn a corner here. His past two runs were very poor there’s no getting away from that, but one was over a mile on soft ground and the other over a couple of furlongs too far at Haydock 12 days ago. A return to a mile on fast ground, with a 5lb lower mark to contend with, might just see him give a solid account of himself from the front at huge odds. It’s a shot in the dark as to whether this fella has the resilience for a finish just now, but we’ll see.
6.30 – Treacherous – 20/1
Individually, Ed De Giles and Pat Cosgrave both do quite well at Kempton Park and when teaming up in general on the flat, boast a 22% strike rate. A course winner over 6f back in September, this Paco Boy gelding has a problem with being slow away from the gate and being keen early on in his races, but there is definitely enough ability there for him to keep improving that aspect of his game.
There is a good bit of pace on here, which will suit and hopefully Treacherous can at least settle into the first half of the race without using up too much energy. If he does that and gets the splits late on, he shouldn’t be too far away at the finish. A handicap rating of 65 remains workable and he should just be able to pop and sit from stall two, without having to worry too much about getting caught wide, as well as held up in rear.
8.00 – Port Douglas – 25/1
This 12f Class 4 contest is very competitive and will take some winning, whichever horse you may fancy for it. But an interesting horse here is Port Douglas, a horse trying to find his feet in the UK after a stint in Hong Kong which didn’t go his way. A Group 2 winning juvenile for Aidan O’Brien, this 5yo has plenty of residual quality in his pedigree and on the whole he’s been holding his form pretty well of late, without troubling the judge – yet. He returns on a 7lb lower mark tonight and racing off 83 gives the horse a real chance to turn a corner on his fourth start of 2018.
It is also worth noting that Jamie Spencer has just the one ride at Kempton tonight, on West Coast Flyer in this race. A step back up to 1m4f, a trip he’s 2/4 at, bodes well for the David Simock runner and he too should give a good account of himself at fair odds.
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Odds are provided at time of writing, please check your betslip to confirm they have not changed before betting.