Welcome to the BetBright STATZONE, where we give you the stats and you make the decisions!
One of the highlights of the jump calendar this Saturday as we’ve day two of the Cheltenham November Meeting – four LIVE ITV races to take in from Prestbury Park that include the BetVictor Gold Cup, while we’ve also two decent Listed races at Lingfield as the AW winter season starts to move up a few notches.
Did you know that 11 of the last 16 BetVictor Gold Cup winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old?
So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on STATZONE with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get cracking!
Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)
12.40 – JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (Registered as The Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m87y RUK
13/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/13 – Won between 0-2 times over hurdles before
11/13 – Never raced at Cheltenham before
10/13 – Returned 4/1 or shorter
10/13 – Won last time out
8/13 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
9/13 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
9/13 – Went onto race in that seasons Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival)
9/13 – Favourites that finished in the top 2
7/13 – Winning favourites
5/13 – Irish bred
5/13 – Went onto finish 1st or 2nd in the Triumph Hurdle
4/13 – German bred
3/13 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/13 – Raced at Chepstow last time out
3/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/13 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/13 – Trained by Alan King
2/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/13 – Went onto win the Triumph Hurdle (Defi Du Seuill 2017, Katchit 2006)
Owner JP McManus has won the last two runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2
STATZONE VERDICT: Some potentially promising sorts on show here but with leading owner JP McManus having landed the last two runnings of this then his NEVER ADAPT could be the answer. Trained by Nicky Henderson, who has also won the race twice since 2013, this is another French filly that is making her UK debut. She won well on her only start in France and even though that form is hard to translate the fact she’s being pitched in here suggests she’s above average. She’ll get the mares’ allowance too, plus Barry Geraghty rides. Of the rest, the Paul Nicholls yard also have a fine record in the race – winning it in 2010, 2011 & 2012 – so his Quel Destin looks another big player. Another French recruit that was a good winner last time out at Kempton, but it’s worth noting he was beaten on his UK debut by Montestrel, who could also go here. The Nicholls horse may have improved since but with Montestrel not been out since there is every chance he’ll have more to give too. Cracker King is another that will be popular and is one of the more experienced in the field with 9 career starts (4 wins). However, that also suggests he might be vulnerable to an improver and it might not be easy having to give 7lbs away to the selection. Finally, the Gary Moore-trained Il Re Di Nessuno should be noted in the betting – he’s got decent flat form in Italy (8th in the Italian Derby) and I know the yard feel he’s above average – hence whey he’s being pitched into a race like this first time out.
1.15 – mallardjewellers.com Novices´ Chase Cl2 3m80y RUK
13/13 – Had won a race over at least 2m4f (fences) before
11/13 – Aged 7 or younger
11/13 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
10/13 – Raced no more than twice over fences
10/13 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
10/13 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
9/13 – Won between 0-1 times over fences before
8/13 – Aged 6 years-old
8/13 – Raced at Cheltenham (3), Aintree (2) or Wetherby (2) last time out
7/13 – Went onto run in the RSA Chase (no winners)
7/13 – Won last time out
7/13 – Irish bred
5/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Trained by David Pipe
3/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/13 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/13 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
The average winning SP in the last 10 running is 4/1
STATZONE VERDICT: The Harry Fry-trained Minella Awards was an easy winner last Saturday at Aintree and on the whole jumped well that day. He’s clearly come out of the contest well to be running again so soon and can go well with Noel Fehily riding. Paul Nicholls won the race last year and in Ibis Du Rheu he’ll have a fair chance as this horse is a past course winner too, albeit over hurdles. But the call here is for THE WORLDS END to remain unbeaten and continue his rise up the chasing ranks. This 7 year-old was a 150+ rated hurdler but translated that form to fences last time at Chepstow with an easy 14 length success – with Now McGinty well back that day. He jumped well that day and could easily make into a better horse over the bigger obstacles.
1.50 – BetVictor Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m3f110y ITV
15/16 – Had won a 3m+ race over fences before
14/16 – Had run at Cheltenham before
13/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Aged 8 or younger
11/16 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
10/16 – Had won between 3 and 5 times over fences before
9/16 – Irish bred
9/16 – Ran within the last month
8/16 – Officially rated between 135 and 146
8/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/16 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
7/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/16 – Ran at either Cheltenham (4) or Sandown (2) last time out
6/16 – French bred
3/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/16 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/16 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/16 – Trained by Fergal O’Brien (2 of last 5 years)
Perfect Candidate (7/1) won the race last year
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1
STATZONE VERDICT: Perfect Candidate won the race 12 months ago and off a 2lb lower mark can’t be ruled out. However, at the age of 11 he’s not getting any younger and even though he defied that negative age trend last time this race generally goes to horses aged 8 or younger (12 of the last 16). COGRY (e/w) is another horse that saves his best for Cheltenham and with only 10-5 to carry has a dangerous-looking weight. A recent second at the track would have blown away the cobwebs too and a 4lb rise for that effort doesn’t look too harsh. Rock The Kasbah ticks a lot of the main trends too and a recent sixth at Chepstow should have brought him on His connections also won this in 2015, but he’s also raced at the track twice now and been poor both times – that would be a worry. If running, The Young Master bounced back to form last time out by winning that same Chepstow race that Rock The Kasbah ran in. He’s up 5lbs for that but on old form is still very well handicapped if that success has given him a taster for more glory. Course winner, VICENTE (e/w), was second in this race last year and is a pound lower this time so is another that must have a big chance if running to that level again. That effort came first time out last year too so the 210 day break is fine. Virgillo and the former Gold Cup winner – Coneygree – are others that are sure to attract interest, while the Tom George-trained Singlefarmpayment is always popular in races like this and also ticks a lot of the trends. However, he’s no real value in the betting for a competitive race like this and with just one win from his last 12 starts doesn’t find getting his head in front easy. Finally, Doing Fine would have a squeak off just 10-0 as he’s a past course winner and it’s interesting the first-time visor is applied.
2.25 – BetVictor Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m4f110y ITV
16/16 – Had run at Cheltenham before
15/16 – Had won over at least 2m4f over fences before
15/16 – Won by a UK-based trainer
12/16 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Had won at Cheltenham before
11/16 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
11/16 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences before
11/16 – Trained by Pipe (3), Jonjo O’Neill (3), Nicholls (2) or Twiston-Davies (3)
10/16 – Carried 10-13 or less (But 4 of the last 6 carried 10-13 or more)
10/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/16 – Won by a horse in the first 3 in the betting
8/16 – Aged 7 years-old
8/16 – Won this on their seasonal reappearance
7/16 – Placed favourites
5/16 – Won their last race
4/16 – Trained by the Pipe stable
4/16 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
3/16 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
3/16 – Ran at Carlisle last time out
2/16 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/16 – Irish-trained winners
The last winner aged in double-figures was in 1975
Paul Nicholls has saddled 9 placed horses (two winners, Al Ferof & Caid Du Berlais) from his last 34 runners
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 10.5/1
STATZONE VERDICT: Another top running of the BetVictor Gold Cup and all eyes will be on Splash Of Ginge as he looks to back-up last years win and become the first horse since Bradbury Star to land the prize two years on the spin. However, at the age of 10 he’ll have the main age trend to overcome as last double-figure aged winner was in 1975! Baron Alco, from the Gary Moore yard, can make a bold bid and he returned to the track after an absence with a fine second at Chepstow last month. He’s yet to finish out of the top three from 7 chase starts and his three runs over fences here have been good ones – second (twice) and third. He can go well. The Moore’s also run BENATAR (e/w) and a case can be made for him too. He pulled way too hard on his first run back at Newton Abbot last month but hopefully that effort has brought him on and in this better race they should go a stronger pace. He was third in the JLT Novices’ Chase here last March and that form would make him interesting too. The Pipe yard have done well in the race over the years so their runners – King’s Socks and Eamon An Cnoic – can’t be ruled out but both would also need to bounce back from below-par runs and have something to prove. Rather Be and Mister Whitaker are other leading players in the race – they were separated by just a head in the Close Brothers Novices’ Chase here at the Festival but Rather Be has a handy weight pull this time, so it looks an interesting re-match. Mister Whitaker, however, has already been out this season, when winning at Carlisle and he looks a fast-improving chaser. From 6 runs over fences he’s won 4 and is yet to finish out of the top three. He could easily be better than a handicapper and the way he travels through his races suggests there is more to come. However, even though he looks the most likely winner for me, he’s also poor value. I’ll already be playing Benatar but one of the Paul Nicholls team often go well in this race too – they’ve have 9 placed horses and two winners from their last 34 runners in the contest. Frodon, Romain De Senam and Movewiththetimes are their entries this year and it’s the last-named – MOVEWITHTHETIMES (e/w) – that looks the most interesting. He gets in here with just 10-5 to carry and Barry Geraghty does the weight for his boss – JP McManus. Yes, he unseated Geraghty last time out, but he gets back onboard so must feel he can put that error behind him. A mark of 140 looks fair and this will be the lightest racing weight he’s ever raced on.
3.00 – Regulatory Finance Solutions Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f67y ITV
14/16 – Aged 7 or younger
13/16 – Carried 10-11 or less in weight
13/16 – Had between 2 and 5 previous hurdles wins
12/16 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
12/16 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
11/16 – Officially rated 126 to 137
11/16 – Placed favourites
11/16 – Ran at either Cheltenham (5), Aintree (3) or Chepstow (3) last time out
10/16 – Irish bred
10/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/16 – Ran within the last month
7/16 – Won their last race
8/16 – Had run at Cheltenham before
6/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/16 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
4/16 – Won by the Pipe stable
1/16 – Won by an Irish-trained stable
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1
4 of the last 10 winners have had a claiming jockey riding
Anteros won the race in 2016 & was second in 2017
STATZONE VERDICT: The Pipe yard have a decent record in the race so anything they send to post should be noted – at this stage they’ve got Dell’Arca and Vieux Lion Rouge entered. Master Dancer is a proven course winner and with the Tim Vaughan yard in good form he might run better than his odds suggest, while the hat-trick seeking Sweet Home Chicago is coming over from Ireland and gets in with a very light weight (10-2) so can’t be ignored. However, we could also see the 2016 winner – ANTEROS (e/w) – in the race again and despite being 10 years-old now is a proven performer in this contest. He was also runner-up 12 months ago and gets in here on just a pound higher rating than last year – he can go well again. First Assignment is another to note if running after winning here at their October Meeting – he’s up 5lbs this time, which looks fair and can be expected to be in the mix again. However, Richard Johnson is an interesting jockey booking for the Olly Murphy-trained WEEBILL so this one is the second pick. We last saw him winning well at Ayr in May and despite a lay-off is expected to be tuned-up for this, but also ticks a fair few of the main trends. A 9lb hike in the ratings means more is needed but he’s only had seven career runs so there should be more to come. He’s got form in all ground and from six hurdles starts is yet to finish out of the top three. Course winner Boyhood, from the Tom George yard, is the final one to get a mention. He returns from a break but is a horse that has gone well fresh in the past and with proven course form has that as a further plus.
3.30 – BetVictor Intermediate Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m5f26y ITV
12/13 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
12/13 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
11/13 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/13 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
8/13 – Returned a double-figure price
7/13 – Favourites unplaced
6/13 – Carried 10-13 or less
6/13 – Went onto finish in the top 4 in a race at the Cheltenham Festival
6/13 – Had run at Cheltenham before
7/13 – Irish bred winners
5/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – French bred winners
2/13 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/13 Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10.5/1
2 of the last 6 winners went onto be placed in the Martin Pipe Conditionals race at the Cheltenham Festival that season
2 of the last 10 winners went onto be placed in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season
STATZONE VERDICT: Point Of Principle was a fair second at Chepstow on his return run and with the Tim Vaughan yard in good order and the fact he can be expected to come on for that effort makes him interesting. 12 of the last 13 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old too so this is a good trend to take into the race, while 11 of the last 13 finished in the top 4 last time out. The 7 year-old Lungarno Place would have the age stat to overcome but has been running well of late to command respect. The Harry Fry yard are in good form too so their Serosevsky is sure to be popular. This 5 year-old has finished in the top three in his last five starts and is one for the shortlist. Aye Right will be popular too with a couple of seconds next to his name – this will be his first run in a handicap but he gets in off what looks a fair mark (123) and deserves to take his chance. However, with only 10-8 to carry the Colin Tizzard-trained CHRISTMAS IN APRIL looks interesting. This 6 year-old was third (of 20) to the useful First Assignment last time out here but with that being his first run for 167 days can be expected to have come on for it. The Tizzard yard are also in terrific form and off only 2lbs higher then there’s a lot to like about his chance. Wested Story, with Richard Johnston booked is sure to be popular and the Hobbs yard are going well at the moment too, while the consistent pair of Dell Oro and Lygon Rock are others that can make their presence felt.
Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)
2.45 – Betway Churchill Stakes (Listed Race) (All-Weather Fast Track Qualifier) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV
10/12 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/12 – Rated between 103 and 112
9/12 – Favourites placed in the top two
8/12 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/12 – Placed last time out
9/12 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
9/12 – Won between 1-4 times before
8/12 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
4/12 – Winning favourites
3/12 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
Master The World (10/1) won the race 12 months ago
The average SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1
STATZONE VERDICT: With 8 of the last 12 winners aged 3 o4 years-old there are only three horses that fit the bill – Snowflakes, Frankuus and ADDEYBB – of that trio the last-named makes the most appeal. Rated 117, the horse is the clear to-rated in the field and this drop back into Listed company will make life a lot easier for him. This Haggas-trained runner has been highly-tried in recent runs at Group One level, but is also a Group Two winner this season so is certainly better than this grade. This will be his first run on the AW but there is no real reason why it won’t suit, with his US pedigree actually suggesting he could be even better on it – James Doyle rides. Godolphin have quite a good record in the race so their Maverick Wave is another to consider of the bigger-priced runners and is also a CD winner here. The main danger to the selection though can come from last year’s winner MASTER THE WORLD. This 7 year-old is drawn well in stall 1 and despite running a bit below-par of late should enjoy the return to the AW – his form on the sand surfaces reads well – 7 runs, and 6 top-three finishes (2 wins). Primero, Spark Plug and the tough Big Country are others that can make their presence felt but if running to it’s mark then despite having to give a bit of weight away Addeybb should have too much class for this lot.
3.15 – Betway Golden Rose Stakes (Listed Race) (All-Weather Fast Track Qualifier) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f ITV
11/11 – Previous winner over 6f or 7f
10/11 – Aged 4 or older
10/11 – Didn’t win last time out
10/11 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
9/11 – Won 5 or more times before
8/11 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
7/11 – Unplaced last time out
7/11 – Unplaced favourites
4/11 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/11 – Winning favourites
Gifted Master (9/2) won the race last year
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1
STATZONE VERDICT: Another decent renewal but with 10 of the last 11 winners aged 4 or older then of the 12 runners the 3 year-olds Could It Be Love, Encrypted & Corinthia Knight would have this to overcome. 10 of the last 11 winners failed to win last time out too, while 8 of the last 11 came from stalls 6 or higher. With those stats in mind, the likes of Gulliver, Mythmaker, Muthmir, Kimberella and Above The Rest are respected but last year’s winner of the race – GIFTED MASTER – also seems to have a lot going for him. This 5 year-old has won twice already this season and wasn’t beaten far in a Listed contest at HQ last time out. He beat Mythmaker by 1 ½ lengths in the race last year after a similar preparation. The 84-day break is also fine as he’s won well fresh in the past – this looks another good chance for jockey James Doyle.
That should be all you need, if you can’t make the right decisions with all that info, there’s no helping you!
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