Who will prevail in international tennis’ most prestigious event?
The 2014 Davis Cup continues this weekend as semifinal ties will be played. The four nations remaining in the tournament are Switzerland, France, the Czech Republic, and Italy.
One semifinal tie will see France host the Czech Republic at Roland Garros while Switzerland will host Italy in Geneva.
Of the four teams remaining, the Swiss are the nation that have the strongest one-two punch. Their nominations for the semifinals include Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka, the respective World No. 3 and World No. 4 players.
Not surprisingly, the Swiss are considered the favorites, not just to win their semifinal against Italy, but to win the 2014 Davis Cup outright.
Here’s a look at the current Davis Cup betting odds we’re offering:
Czech Republic: 18/5
If you are evaluating the odds on the Czechs then it may prove important to note a few points with their semifinal nominations.
Firstly, the best player they can send is Tomas Berdych however he has been losing plenty of matches to lower ranked players recently. Lukas Rosol, their No. 2, has a recent title however he is inconsistent in his results. Radek Stepanek, though a very talented player, is nearly 36-years old so it’s not clear how well he’ll hold up in long matches now.
While Jiri Vesely appears to be a future threat, at present he is a player who is still developing. It’s these problems that suggest that their odds of 18/5 are not worth the risk.
If you look at the Italians then you see a team that does not have a ton of depth as their No. 1, Fabio Fognini, is the only player ranked in the Top 20 at the moment.
Italian No. 2 Andreas Seppi used to be a strong player on tour however nowadays he’s barely hanging on to a Top 50 spot. Their remaining nominations are relative unknowns on tour and, even long at 10 to 1, Italy therefore appears to offer no betting value.
If you agree that the Italians and Czechs aren’t priced long enough for what they offer then it leaves only the French and the Swiss for consideration.
While it’s true that Federer and Wawrinka could carry the Swiss to the championship, bettors should want better than 6/10 in the futures market for the 2014 Davis Cup. This is especially true since Federer and Wawrinka both have busy schedules ahead of them before the 2014 Davis Cup final is to be played in late November.
It’s not clear what the top two players for Switzerland will have left in the tank following Shanghai, Basel, Paris, and the ATP World Tour Finals – tournaments one or both of them could be very active in.
A similar point could be made about the French players as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Richard Gasquet, Gael Monfils, and Julien Benneteau should be active on tour in the upcoming months as well.
However, an important point to note is that the French program has a lot more depth. For example, the third and fourth nominations for the Swiss are Marco Chiudinelli and Michael Lammer, fringe players on tour. These players don’t measure up to players like Monfils and Benneteau at all, France’s final nominations for the semifinals.
A couple key questions bettors need to ask themselves is, firstly, how much confidence do they have in Wawrinka and/or Federer playing in the Davis Cup final? Secondly, even if they play couldn’t they lose to players like Monfils, Gasquet, and/or Tsonga?
If Wawrinka and Federer don’t play or if they don’t play well then you have to hate the prospect of your bet on the Swiss resting on inexperienced players like Chiudinelli or Lammer.
The depth the French have could make all the difference and, accordingly, backing them at 7/2 seems like the smartest bet available on the Davis Cup market.
As ever, the 2014 Davis Cup is available to back both per-torunament and live in-play in the tennis betting section of our main site.