Another day at Goodwood ahead and Nick Luck is on hand with his run through the card….
3.35 – Sussex Stakes
We’ll start with the big race of the day and if the rain arrives before Wednesday night, then it could have a significant impact on the chances of Churchill, whereas we know that Ribchester can produce Group One form on an easy surface.
I’m still inclined to believe that Churchill’s not a busted flush after his Royal Ascot defeat – I just think he was in the wrong place, in a race run at the wrong tempo for a horse of his nature. He’s a galloping-staying-miler, rather than a quicken-at-will miler.
You’d imagine on this occasion that Lancaster Bomber (who’s well drawn in stall 3) might swing along more readily from the front and that Churchill might attend him a little more closely.
There aren’t many reasons why Ribchester can be opposed should a plethora of rain arrive but if the ground stays on the good side, I’d quite fancy Churchill to get the better of him, having learnt his lessons from Ascot.
The horse that fascinates me at a massive price is Zonderland. The fact that somebody as pragmatic as Clive Cox is prepared to slide him into a race as spicy as this, first time out, tells you all you need to know. He’s always had a massively high opinion of him, but thus far, he hasn’t shown his best form on soft-ish ground – but I still think he is a smart prospect.
3.00 – Molecomb Stakes
I’m keen on Invincible Army, who didn’t run too badly at all in the July Stakes, coming only a head behind the Coventry winner and I think a drop to 5f is quite feasible.
If there’s a horse in the race I’d keep my eye on, it’s Encrypted, who hasn’t shown the form required to win a race like this yet, but he showed blistering speed and class at York last time before not getting the trip, so there’s a lot of value there for an each-way bet.
2.25 – 3-y-o Handicap
You’d love a penny for Charlie Appleby’s thoughts with First Nation, Secret Adviser and Wolf Country all in this race.
I’d like to think Secret Adviser is the one though, given that he’s William Buick’s choice but he’s badly drawn in stall 13 and on that basis I’d probably prefer First Nation off the back of a very respectable run behind Atty Persse at Royal Ascot.
It’s also worth noting that First Nation’s Dam won on heavy ground and he’s by Dubawi, so there’s every chance that he can go with a bit more cut and he’ll definitely stay a bit further. I’m happy to chance James Doyle might be on the right one at double figure odds currently available.
1.50 – 3-y-o Handicap
I like a couple in this one – I have a safe bet and a slightly riskier one here.
The safe one is last year’s winner, Star Rider, who ran perfectly well at Ascot, with no luck in the Ascot Stakes at all and I think she’s got a decent chance again.
She’s off at 9Ibs higher but she improved in the last 10f and will definitely stay, so is perfectly capable of winning off this mark.
I’d also be interested in October Storm, which ran OK at Ascot and the Northumberland Plate confirmation race, but just couldn’t quite get going in a slightly tactical race.
He’s got course winning form, looked quite impressive at Goodwood first time out this season and seems like he wants a marathon trip. Mick Channon and the owners are very fond of this meeting, and I suspect this has been the plan for a little while, so October Storm could be a nice each-way play.
Selections For Wednesday…
1.50 – 3-y-o Handicap – Star Rider / October Storm Each-way
2.25 – 3-y-o Handicap – First Nation
3.00 – Molecomb Stakes – Invincible Army / Encrypted Each-way
3.35 – Sussex Stakes – Churchill
Odds are provided at time of writing, please check your betslip to confirm they have not changed before betting.