Afternoon flat racing action on Tuesday hails from three meetings at Ayr, Chepstow and Nottingham, on a busy day of six meetings in total, including two Summer Jumps cards and racing on the level in Sligo this evening. It is a tricky day and not one obviously built for bookie-bashing, but below we bid to liven up the feature afternoon fare with two fancies and a fun, Sire based forecast at Nottingham…
Step back in trip will do for Afandem in Ayr feature
£12,500 is on offer for the 4.45pm at Ayr, a Class 3 handicap over 6f where all eight of the field have something to prove, a corner to turn or a missing box to tick in order to win. Red Pike heads the market for Bryan Smart, a horse with a fine record in the class and trip and he can go well at this time of year too, but he was well below par at Ripon the last day and has a bit to find on that evidence. David O’Meara’s Saryshagann is the dark horse in the field, advertising some useful French form on his first start for last year’s winning stable of this race. He will need to be sharp in order to score off top weight and a mark of 90, however, on his first start for over 2 years.
Preference then is for Mark Johnston’s AFANDEM, a Group 3 winner as a juvenile that has been struggling to find the net in recent runs. He is very fit though and a modest effort on good to soft at Yarmouth over 7f last time out, can be forgiven in favour of taking the positives from two far more solid efforts on the All-Weather in March. Afandem handles fast ground well and his handicap mark of 81 is very workable now he’s back to 6f on the turf, with Good to Firm ground assured this afternoon at the Scottish venue. Mark Johnston has fired in 17 winners from 75 runners in the past fortnight, so is a trainer with his tail up just now.
Six Furlongs just the trick for Operative at Chepstow
A fairly modest midweek feature in Chepstow’s 3.45pm, a Class 4 Handicap over 6f, where Mark Johnston’s Prestbury Park heads the market now he’s down in class. A dual-winning juvenile, this horse is not without talent, but he’s been weak in the finish quite a few times lately and is short enough in the betting on that basis. Global Tango has fair claims for emerging Sprint King Charlie Hills, but for all his solid paper profile, he hasn’t done much on the clock and will need to have progressed to score first time out from a mark of 80.
Ed De Giles is a man to follow at Chepstow, having saddled up 10 winners from 42 runners there in the past three years. His yard is an hour up the A40 from the racecourse, sitting a few miles under the Malvern Hills and he does have a knack of targeting horses to good effect at the Welsh track. He runs two in this race, hailing from vastly different backgrounds. The 3yo filly Boreagh Lass has a mark of 76 to contend with first time out and will need to be good to forfeit experience and fitness in field. The preference then is for OPERATIVE, a two time 5f winner, who’s only won once over 6f, but as he gets older he may be best suited by the additional 220 yards or so. A satisfactory return to action at Nottingham last time out over the minimum trip should bring him on for this second outing and his mark of 78 is workable if bringing something like his best under Adam Kirby, a man who also has an excellent record at Chepstow.
A 1-2 for up and coming sire Red Jazz in Nottingham’s 3.25 Fillies’ Handicap?
Red Jazz had a colourful career on the track a few years back and although he’s produced no stars yet as a sire, he is responsible for a steady stream of winners (26 wins from 272 runners, +£77 to £1 stake at BFSP) since beginning his new career. Red Jazz sired two runners in the £15,000 feature over a mile at Nottingham today and both look to have pretty solid chances — so why not venture a little reverse Red Jazz forecast?
The first is bottom weight Arabian Jazz, who scored handsomely in a 13-runner heat at Beverley last time out, clocking a decent speed figure in the process and there’s no obvious reason he shouldn’t go very well under a resurgent Hayley Turner once again. The second is Ed Dunlop’s Fabulous Red (so between the two sons we have the full name of the father, it’s written in the stars, this forecast — no?), who was all at sea over 10f first time out at Windsor, but a drop back in trip for his second race of 2018 could bring about the improvement required to figure well here.
It is a trappy little contest, but I like the the Sire angle for a modest reverse forecast bet, if only to liven up the race a bit as a viewing prospect!
Check back on the BetBright blog on Thursday for some thoughts on Goodwood’s afternoon card, along with some horses to note on a quality evening card at Sandown Park.
You can read more from Kevin O’Malley and find the latest form, race cards, free tips & news on GG.CO.UK.
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