Welcome to the BetBright STATZONE, where we give you the stats and you make the decisions!
Yes, with Royal Ascot on the horizon then this Saturday’s action might not be the best on the horse racing calendar, but we’ve still seven LIVE ITV4 races to take in. Spread across three venues – York, Sandown and Musselburgh – there is still plenty to look forward too as we’ll be looking to bolster the Royal Ascot pot ready to take aim next week!
So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on STATZONE with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV4 races across Saturday afternoon at York, Sandown and Musselburgh racecourses – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the big fields – So, let’s get started!
Saturday 17th June 2017
Sandown Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)
2.40 – Randox Health Scurry Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f6y ITV4
12/12 – Returned 10/1 or shorter
10/12 – Had won over 5f before
10/12 – Placed favourites
10/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/12 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
8/12 – Had won at least 3 times before
7/12 – Came from stall 7 or higher
7/12 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
7/12 – Winning favourites
7/12 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
7/12 – Irish bred
6/12 – Had won a Listed or Group 3 race before
5/12 – Ran at either Haydock (3) or Beverley (2) last time out
2/12 – Trained by Michael Bell
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 3/1
Trainer William Haggas has 31% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer John Gosden has 21% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Charles Hills has just 2 from 40 with his 3 year-olds at the track
Ryan Moore has a 26% record riding 3 year-olds at the track
STATZONE VERDICT: The William Haggas camp are going well at the moment so their Gheedaa is interesting. Yes, she’s not been seen since last December, but the yard boasts an impressive 31% record with their 3 year-olds at the track and connections clearly feel she’s capable of mixing it in this Listed grade. Copper Knight heads here on a three-timer after decent handicap wins at Chester and York so deserves to take his chance in this grade and should not be far away. Based on the rating and the fact she receives a fillies’ allowance then Equimou would certainly enter calculations. She was a good winner of a conditions race at Hamilton last time and gets a handy weight concession from most of the leading fancies so is another for the shortlist. Trainer Charles Hills only has a 5% record with his 3 year-olds here so his Battaash is overlooked, but, in contrast, the Gosden team boast an impressive 21% strike-rate – they run Ardad. This 3 year-old will be fitter for a recent fourth at York, but the horse that finished 13 lengths in front of him that day – FASHION QUEEN – lines-up too and might be hard to beat again. Ryan Moore catches the eye in the saddle (rides the horse for the first time) and despite only getting up by a head last time in that Listed race we can expect her to have come on a lot for that, being it was her first outing for 9 months. She’s won on good-to-firm in the past so the ground is fine, while Ryan Moore has a decent 26% record when riding 3 year-olds at this track.
York Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)
1.50 – Queen Mother´s Cup (Lady Amateur Riders) (Handicap) Cl3 1m4f ITV4
13/14 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
12/14 – Carried 9-11 or more
12/14 – Aged 6 or younger
12/14 – Had run over 1m4f or further previously
11/14 – Had at least 2 previous runs already that season (flat)
11/14 – Rated between 80-89
11/14 – Had won over 1m4f or further before
10/14 – Won from a single-figure stall
9/14 – Favourites placed in the top four
9/14 – Had run at York before
9/14 – Winning distance – 3/4 length or less
8/14 – Had won at least 3 times before (flat)
7/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
7/14 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
6/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
4/14 – Winners that came from stalls 3 or 4
4/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/14 – Won by trainer Tim Easterby (including last year)
3/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Won by trainer Luca Cumani
2/14 – Ridden by Miss J Coward
0/14 – Placed horses from stall 2
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 10/1
STATZONE VERDICT: A ladies riders’ race here and just like past renewals it looks an ultra-competitive affair. Several key trends to note though – like 12 of the last 14 winners aged 6 or younger, so of the 11 runners this whittles the field down to 7, while 11 of the last 14 winners were rated between 80-89, had won over 1m4f (or further) and had raced at least twice already that season. Despite being run over 1m4f the draw has been significant too with 10 of the last 14 winners hailing from a single-figure berth, plus 9 of the last 14 winners had raced here at York in the past. So, looking at the runners the only last time out winner in the field is the Tom Dascombe-trained Azari, who won well at Wolverhampton last time. He was with Paul Nicholls (yes, the jumps trainer) then so this will be his first run under Dascombe. That was only a claimer he took last time so it might be wise not to get carried away, but is certainly one for the shortlist. Mrs Bartley won the race in 2013 so her mount this year – Corton Lad – is respected, but draw 10 is not ideal, while being 7 years-old falls down on the key age trend. Another jockey that has done well in the race though is Miss Emily Easterby, as she took the prize 12 months ago for trainer Tim Easterby. In fact, the Easterby yard love targeting this race – winning is 4 times in the last 14 runnings, so with that in-mind their MUKHAYYAM (e/w) looks the safest option. This 81-rated 5 year-old has a decent draw in 2 and heads here back in form after a close second at Ripon last time out. He’s run three times at the track before too – running well on two of those occasions (4th and 3rd), so all things considered he’s a horse that seems to have more of the key trends in his corner than most. Of the rest, the only past course and distance winner in the field – Chancery – would command respect, while it’s interesting that the powerful Richard Fahey yard fire two bullets at the race in Masterpaver and Imshivalla.
2.20 – JCB Handicap Cl2 7f ITV4
Only 2 previous runnings
Both winners were aged 4 years-old
Both winners came from single-figure stalls
No winning favourites
Trainer Charles Hills won the race in 2015
Trainer Charles Hills has a 17% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey is just 12 from 254 (5%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Mark Johnston is just 3 from 57 (5%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer John Quinn is just 2 from 54 (4%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Michael Easterby is just 5 from 140 (4%) with his older horses at the track
STATZONE VERDICT: Only two past runnings of this tricky handicap so not a lot to go on. However, there are some pretty dire trainer stats to apply to the race with big yards like Richard Fahey, Mark Johnston, John Quinn and Michael Easterby all having poor records at the track with their older horses. Based on that, anything that quartet run is overlooked. The Charles Hills camp do, however, have a good record at the course with their 4+ year-olds so it’s interesting that their 6 year-old Tanzeel has been kept in training. Yes, not been out for 315 days, but this horse is a past course winner and is very well-handicapped based on older form. Fitness would have to be taken on trust, but in a race the yard has targeted with success in recent years then he’s one to consider. Salateen, and the hat-trick seeking Theodorico are past course and distance winners here so are others to have on your radar, but the only other proven CD winner in the field – GET KNOTTED (e/w) – might be the answer. This 5 year-old is often never far away in his races and on his favoured quick ground looks to have a lot going for him. He’s dropped 2lbs for a recent third (of 6) here and the time before that ran a solid fifth in a Listed Handicap over a mile here. Draw 8 gives him option and in the last few weeks the Michael Dods camp have started to fire in plenty of winners. Of the rest, recent winners, Reputation, Burnt Sugar and Fingal’s Cave are others to note.
2.55 – Best Western Hotels Ganton Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m ITV4
Only 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
5/5 – Aged 5 or younger
4/5 – Irish bred
4/5 – Placed favourites
4/5 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
3/5 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
3/5 – Had won a Listed (or better) race before
3/5 – Winning favourites
2/5 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 3/1
STATZONE VERDICT: The 113-rated Gabrial is the highest-rated in the field and is sure to be popular based on that, but despite being one of the biggest Northern yards the Richard Fahey team actually have a terrible record here at York. They have just a 6% record overall here, while are a poor 12 from 254 (5%) with their 4+year-olds at the track. With that taken into account their Gabrial, who was a close second at Epsom last time out, is overlooked. Yes, the horse is often never far away, and this drop into Listed grade makes him a big player – but he’s actually on a 13 race losing run and has become hard to win with. Golden Stunner was a past course winner, after winning over 7f last time out and should not be far away. But the Stoute-trained THIKRIYAAT (e/w) is a past Group Three winner and is better than his last showing here. That was his first run back so may have just needed it, while the quicker ground will also be to his liking. This Listed grade looks ideal for him and with that recent run having blown away the cobwebs is the call – Jim Crowley, Hamdan Al Maktoum’s number one jockey, rides. Custom Cut and Mondialiste have the past form to be dangerous, while the yard often does well with their runners here. Of the rest, we can expect the Hannon-trained Khafoo Shememi to try and make a bold bid from the front, but he might just set the race up for the others. Spark Plug is another that rarely runs a bad race and should be involved, while it’s interesting that the Godolphin team pitch their hat-trick seeking Arabian Hope in his higher grade. She gets bundles of weight from the others and that should see her involved – she rates a live danger to the selection.
3.30 – Catherine Kinlocj Paver Memorial Macmillan Sprint (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV4
11/12 – Rated between 87-97
10/12 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
10/12 – Had won over 6f before
9/12 – Unplaced favourites
9/12 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
8/12 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Had won between 1-2 times before
6/12 – Irish bred
6/12 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
4/12 – Won last time out
2/14 – Won by Tim Easterby (inc 2 of the last 4 runnings)
0/14 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/1
Trainer Hugo Palmer is 4 from 12 (33%) with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Clive Cox is 2 from 9 (22%) with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey is only 5 from 127 (4%) with his 3 year-olds at the track
Andrea Atzeni is 7 from 33 (21%) riding 3 year-olds at the track
Paul Hanagan is only 1 from 46 riding 3 year-olds at the track
STATZONE VERDICT: A tough handicap to unravel here, but with 11 of the last 12 runners rated between 87 and 97 then the 18 runners actually become down to just 8 very quickly – IMPART, MUNRO, CARLTON FRANKIE, GULLIVER, KODILINE, EKHTIYAAR, MEDICI BANCHIERE and TOMILY. With 10 of the last 12 also placed in the top 5 last time out then of those 8 Medici Banchiere and Kodiline fall down. 9 of the last 12 winners raced in the last 4 weeks, while with a decent 33% record at the track with his 3 year-olds then trainer Hugo Palmer’s GULLIVER (e/w) looks the one to focus on. Also ridden by Andrea Atzeni, who has a stonking 21% record riding 3 year-olds here, then this horse looks to have a lot going for him. Add in that he’s a past course winner and also seems to be running into form after a close 4th (of 9) last time out at Windsor. He was only beaten 1 ¼ lengths that day and was running on well at the finish. This stiffer track will suit and we know he stays further, while with only 5 career runs there should also be a lot more to come. Of the rest, the Tim Easterby camp have won this race twice in the last 4 years so their Golden Apollo, who won very well last time at Pontefract, enters the mix with only 8-3 to carry – but with horses from stall 1 being 0 from the last 14 runnings then he’s got this to overcome. Finally, it’s slightly surprising that top jockey Paul Hanagan is just 1 from 46 when riding 3 year-olds here so he’ll be looking to improve that stat on the Richard Fahey-trained Private Matter.
Musselburgh Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)
2.05 – William Hill Tartan Trophy (A Consolation For Scottish Sprint Cup) (Handicap) Cl3 5f ITV4
Only 3 previous runnings
Meadway won the race 12 months ago
3/3 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
3/3 – Carried 9-5 or more
2/3 – Came from double-figure stalls
Trainer David Baron is just 2 from 35 with his older horses at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey has a 17% record with this older horses at the track
STATZONE VERDICT: A tough race and with only three past running not a great deal to go on. Meadway took the prize 12 months ago and tries to follow-up again. This Bryan Smart-trained 6 year-old beat another runner in Olivia Fallow that day and the fact he’s actually 3lbs lower this year makes him very interesting. But he’s not won since from 8 starts and will need to bounce back. OLIVIA FALLOW (e/w) would enter the mix too and despite running 12th of 19 last time was only beaten 4 lengths in the Epsom Dash. Before that she was a close third at Redcar in this grade of race and with Graham Lee back in the plate (rode her to her last victory) then she looks a big player to go close – her form figures at the track read 2282. With just 2 winners from his last 35 at the track (4+ year-olds) then David Barron’s consistent Fast Track is overlooked, but with Richard Fahey boasting the best trainer record at the course with his older horses (17%), then his Paddy Power catches the eye – especially with the talented Sammy Jo Bell claiming a handy 3lbs.
3.10 – William Hill Scottish Sprint Cup (A Heritage Handicap) Cl2 5f ITV4
12/13 – Won over 5f before
11/13 – Favourites that finished in the top 5
10/13 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
10/13 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/13 – Carried 9-1 or less
9/13 – Had won between 2-5 times before
9/13 – Came from a double-figure stall
8/13 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
8/13 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/13 – Won last time out
4/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Trained by Bryan Smart
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 16/1
STATZONE VERDICT: Plenty of old rivals line-up here and it looks a tough one to call. It’s a race that split decisions will be crucial and also a race that would probably have 10 different winners if run 10 times! Some fair trends though and with 10 of the last 13 winners carrying 9-1 or less then if this stat is to be repeated then the top five on the card can be overlooked, including the recent Epsom Dash winner Caspian Prince. Duke Of Firenze, who was third in the race 12 months ago off a 7lb lower mark, also falls into that top bracket, but has been running so well this season then it’s hard to not see Dave Griffiths’ 8 year-old being involved. 8 of the last 13 winners were aged 4 or 5 so based on this Bowson Fred, Harry Hurricane, El Astronaute, and East Street Revue all fit the bill. Move In Time would be a big player on old form, but at 9 is not getting any younger, while the same would apply to Stepper Point, who wasn’t too long ago rated in the 100’s. However, the generally consistent BOWSON FRED (e/w) might be the safest call. This 5 year-old can be forgiven his last run in the Epsom Dash as that race can be won or lost in a flash, but before that he’s been a fine second twice and if you take that Epsom run out he’s finished in the top 5 in all of his last 7 starts. Add in that he’s a past course and distance winner, plus it’s also interesting that connections have opted to put a 7lbs apprentice on his back – that weight allowance will be a huge plus.
That should be all you need, if you can’t make the right decisions with all that info, there’s no helping you!
Andy Newton
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