Welcome to the BetBright STATZONE, where we give you the stats and you make the decisions!
The three-day 2018 Newmarket July Meeting gets started on Thursday (12th July) and with LIVE ITV races each day we’ve got everything covered from a trends and stats angle.
On day one the Group Two July Stakes and Prince of Wales’s Stakes are the key contests – did you know that a 4 year-old has won 8 of the last 11 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes?
Anyway, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on STATZONE with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races at Newmarket’s July Meeting – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the big fields – So, let’s get started!
Newmarket July Meeting – Day One,
Thursday 12th July 2018
1.50 – Bahrain Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 1m5f ITV
16/16 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
14/16 – Failed to win last time out
14/16 – Never run on the Newmarket July Course before
11/16 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
10/16 – Favourites placed in the top three
10/16 – Won at 3/1 or shorter
10/16 – Had won over 1m2f (or further) before
9/16 – Finished fifth or worse in their previous race
5/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Trained by John Gosden (inc 4 of last 7 runnings)
3/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/16 – Ridden by William Buick
2/16 – Winners that came from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2
Raheen House (7/2) won the race in 2017
STATZONE VERDICT: Trainer John Gosden has landed this race four times in the last seven years so his Frankie Dettori-ridden First Eleven is a good place to start. He was last seen running third (of 18) in the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot but he looked an unlucky loser that day. He didn’t get the best of runs in the closing stage and having lost by just a neck at the line would surely have won if he’d had an easier passage. This is, however, a leap up from handicap company into a Group Three so more is needed but connections clearly feel he’s up to the job and with their excellent record in the race he can go well. Prior to that Ascot run he bolted-up by five lengths at Newbury so he looks a horse ready for the rise in grade. Aidan O’Brien won the pot in 2016 and runs two – Victory Salute and Giuseppe Garibaldi. Both are respected but being rated 108 then the last named of his duo looks the more likely winner. He’s a Listed winner over 1m4f and certainly wasn’t disgraced when third in the Group Two King Edward VII Stakes at Ascot in June. He’s since run well in that grade in Ireland over 1m6f so the combination of this slight drop in class and trip make GIUSEPPE GARIBALDI the one to beat. Of the rest, jockey William Buick has a good record in the race – winning it on 2012 and 2013 – he rides Loxley. This Godolphin-owned 3 year-old was a good winner at the track in June but that came over 1m2f so this step up to 1m5f is a big unknown. Connections must feel he’s crying out for the trip so if he stays this unexposed Charlie Appleby runner can’t be ruled out. Berkshire Blue was super-impressive when winning by 11 lengths at Wolverhampton last time but this is a huge step up in grade. The final mention goes to Wells Farhh Go. This horse has had a tall reputation all season but is yet to really deliver on it. He won the Group Three Acomb Stakes last season over 7f as a juvenile, while this season was sixth in both the Dante Stakes and the King Edward VII Stakes at Ascot. He’s up again in trip but still have plenty to prove over these sorts of distances for me and despite being well thought of I’d like to see him more proven over the distance.
2.25 – Arqana July Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6f ITV
15/16 – Placed in their last run
15/16 – Had won over 5 or 6f previously
13/16 – Had 2 or more previous career starts
12/16 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
10/16 – Won their last race
9/16 – Won at 9/2 or shorter
8/16 – Unplaced favourites
7/16 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their last race
6/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon
5/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
1/16 – Winners that came from stall 1
Frankie Dettori has ridden 4 winners in the race
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2
Cardsharp (8/1) won the race in 2017
STATZONE VERDICT: A rare runner in a 6f Group Two race for trainer Alan King, who is more famed for having runners over the sticks. Their Dunkerron though has caught the eye after winning at Windsor and York this season and has thrived since conditions around the country turned quick. It goes without saying more is needed but he’s done everything right in recent runs to warrant a crack at this level. But John Gosden won this in 2015 and he looks to have another useful 2 year-old sprinter on his hands in LEGENDS OF WAR. He bolted-up on debut by 4 lengths at Yarmouth and is clearly held in high regard to make the leap from that race into a Group Two. The yard will also have a line on Advertise as their classy Calyx beat that horse a length in the Coventry Stakes last time out and with a bit more scope to improve than some of these gets the call. Frankie has been booked to ride Advertise here and this is a race that’s been kind to the pocket Italian during his career with four wins. The form of that Coventry Stakes looks solid with the winner looking very useful indeed so this Martyn Meade-trained 2 year-old still sets a fair standard. Jockey Paul Hanagan is another that has done well in this race – winning it in 2012 and 2013 – but his mount Charming Kid has a bit to prove after flopping in the Norfolk Stakes last time out. Trainer Simon Crisford has a decent 21% record with this 2 year-olds here and with jockey James Doyle having a 31% strike-rate riding youngsters at the course then Sporting Chance will be looking to uphold those stats. Finally, the Aidan O’Brien yard have a cracking 40% record with their 2 year-olds at the course – they run North Wind and Van Beethoven – with the last-named their better chance. He was a fair fourth in the Windsor Castle Stakes in June and backed that up by winning a Group Two over in Ireland when stepped back up to 6f. Being a proven winner at this level then he’ll have to give 3lbs away to the rest and that won’t be easy.
3.00 – Bet365 Handicap Cl2 6f ITV
12/12 – Didn’t win last time out
12/12 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
12/12 – Had 3 or 4 previous runs that season
12/12 – Had won no more than 3 times before
10/12 – Had won over 6f before
9/12 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
9/12 – Carried 8-12 or less
9/12 – Came from a double-figure stall
9/12 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/12 – Unplaced favourites
7/12 – Finished unplaced last time out
3/12 – Trained by Andrew Balding
3/12 – Ridden by David Probert
0/12 – Winning favourites
Ekhiyaar (13/2) won the race in 2017
STATZONE VERDICT: 20 runners to unravel here but with ALL of the last 12 winners failing to win their last race then that at least knocks out six of the runners and some well-fancied ones too – Embour, Buridan, Kimifive, Roundhay Park, Tribal Quest and Encrypted. All 12 recent winners had run in the last 4 weeks too and had 3 or 4 previous runs that season. Double-figure stalls have held the advantage in recent years too, with 75% of the last 12 winners fitting that draw stat. Jockey Oisin Murphy has a stonking 40% (6 from 15) record when riding 3 year-olds at the track so his ride Grand Koonta is respected. However, the three I like here are FOXTROT LADY, TADBIR and JAWWAAL. The first-named comes from the Andrew Balding yard that won this race in 2010 and 2016. They also boast a decent 26% record with their 3 year-olds at the course. Yes, he’s got 2 lengths to find with Encrypted but was only beaten 2 lengths that day and was a bit unlucky in not having much room in the closing stages – with a bit more luck she can reverse that form. Tadbir has been running over 7f of late but the drop back to 6f looks like it could be the key. He’s 1-from-1 over this trip should have more to offer with only five career runs to his name. Jim Crowley picks this one to ride over the other Hamdan Al Maktoum runner in the field – Jawwaal – but that’s not to say this John Gosden runner isn’t without a chance either. He also ran in that same race as Tadbir and Encrypted last time, but despite coming 9th was only beaten just over 3 lengths. Like, Tadbir, he gets a bit of a weight pull with the winner and he also didn’t get the best of runs in the closing stages. Prior to that run he’d won well at Lingfield and Kempton so knows how to get his head in front.
3.35 – Princess Of Wales´s Arqana Racing Club Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m4f ITV
14/16 – Aged 4 or older (4 year-olds have won 8 of last 11)
14/16 – Had 2 or more runs that season
14/16 – Previously won over at least 1m4f
13/16 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
11/16 – Won at 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race before
10/16 – Unplaced in their previous race
9/16 – Favourites that were placed
8/16 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their previous race
5/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won it 9 times in total)
4/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/16 – Won by trainer Mark Johnston
Big Orange won the race in 2015 & 2016
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1
Hawkbill (7/2) won the race in 2017
STATZONE VERDICT: This has been a great race for trainer Sir Michael Stoute in recent years and it could be again in 2018. He’s landed the prize nine times in total, with the last of those coming in 2009, 2011 and 2012 – so he’s due another win, right? He teams-up with Ryan Moore with MIRAGE DANCER – Moore rode Stoute’s 2011 and 2012 winners too. This 4 year-old was an easy Listed winner at Goodwood in May but failed to build on that by only finishing fifth last time in the Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot. However, that last run was over 1m2f and after being slowly away just found things happening a tad too quick for him to make up the ground. Back over this longer trip he’ll have more time to wind-up and hopefully outstay his rivals – he gets the nod. Jim Crowley has picked Laraaib of the two Hamdan runners so that might be significant – Muntahaa is the other. This 4 year-old was, however, 7th in the Wolferton Stakes last time out so has a bit to find with the selection too, while this will also be his first try over this longer trip. Barsanti and Duretto are proven winners over the trip and should go well too but the main danger to the pick is the Godolphin runner – BEST SOLUTION. This 4 year-old is the clear highest-rated in the field off a mark of 116 and has been running in slightly better races than this. He was last seen running fifth in the Group One Sheema Classic in Dubai and that form sets the standard. Jockey Pat Cosgrave has ridden him in all of his last five starts and in 8 of his last 10 outings so don’t be wondering why a certain William Buick or James Doyle isn’t riding. He’s also got a three month break to overcome but has gone ok off a break in the past so that’s not too much of a worry.
That should be all you need, if you can’t make the right decisions with all that info, there’s no helping you!
Also published on Medium.