Welcome to the BetBright STATZONE, where we give you the stats and you make the decisions!
As we move into Sunday we’ve more top-notch horse racing action at Newmarket with the second English Classic of the season – the 1,000 Guineas – the feature. The ITV cameras are at HQ to take in four races LIVE and, as always, we’ve got all the main trends and stats, plus our free tips for each TV race.
We’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the big fields – So, let’s get started!
Sunday 7th May 2017
Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)
1.50 – Qatar Racing Handicap (Handicap) Cl2 1m4f ITV
12/13 – Had won at least twice before
12/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/13 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
11/13 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Finished in the top 5 in their last race
10/13 – Winning distance 1 ½ lengths or less
9/13 – Had won over 1m4f before
9/13 – Had won between 2-4 times before
5/13 Having their first run of the season
5/13 – Had run at Newmarket before (Rowley)
3/13 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/13 – Winning favourites (1 co)
1/13 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1
STATZONE VERDICT: A competitive handicap to get going, but we’ve several key trends to take into the race that will hopefully help us narrow down the runners. With a massive 12 of the last 13 winners aged either 4 or 5 years-old then this is too big a stat to ignore. While if we also add in that 12 of the last 13 winners carried 9-2 or less in this handicap then all of a sudden we’ve put a line through quite a few. The Queen’s runner – Mainstream – will be popular with Ryan Moore teaming-up on this 4 year-old, but with 9-4 to carry then he does fall down on that key weight trend. 11 of the last 13 winners were placed in the top 5 in their last race too, but only one of the last 13 came here off the back of a win. The Mick Appleby-trained Big Country certainly ticks more trends than most and this 4 year-old was an impressive winner last time out at Kempton. However, a 10lb rise for that comfortable win looks harsh, while as I pointed out just 1 of the last 13 winners took this having won last time out. Going Up and Dance The Dream are others that catch the eye, but also head here off the back of victories. Two that do stand out though are FINAL (e/w) and BANDITRY (e/w). The first-named was a solid second at Ripon a few weeks ago and with plenty of runs already this year should head here fitter than most. Yes, this 5 year-old got 8 lengths to find with Big Country based on their Kempton run, but he’s improved since and also has a massive 8lb pull with that horse this time around. Banditry is another that will head here fit and well after a decent second at Epsom just 11 days ago. He’s only a pound higher for that run, but being it was his first for 2 months then we can expect him to have come on for it. This is his first try over 1m4f, but the way he stayed on into second last time out was a clear sign this extra yardage will suit.
2.20 – Charm Spirit Dahlia Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m1f ITV
13/13 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
12/13 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
12/13 – Had won over 1m (or further) before
11/13 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
9/13 – Aged 4 years-old
8/13 – Had run at the course before
7/13 – Ran at either Kempton (4) or Newmarket (3) last time out
7/13 – Won this on first run of the season
6/13 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
5/13 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
5/13 – Won last time out
4/13 – Ran at Kempton last time out
4/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/13 – Ridden by William Buick
2/13 – French-trained winners (2 of the last 3)
7 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 1-4 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/3
STATZONE VERDICT: With 12 of the last 13 winners aged 4 or 5 then we should be able to rule out the only 6 year-old in the field – Elbereth. Next up is to look as recent runs as ALL of the last 13 winners finished in the top 5 last time out – a positive for most of the runners, but Aim To Please (8th) and Nezwaah (7th) fall down here. The Marco Botti-trained Aljazzi will be popular with Frankie riding and also heads here having won well at Kempton last month. She’s also a proven course winner so is not one to dismiss lightly. However, with 7 of the last 11 winners coming from stalls 1-4 (inc), and based on the main trends the three that stand out are Muffri’Ha, Skiffle and Somehow. Muffri’Ha is the only proven course and distance winner in the field, so has that on her side and rarely runs a bad race these days. She’s finished in the top three in all of her last eight races and should be thereabouts again. The only worry would be she’s yet to win beyond Group Three level and at 5 years-old, will there be anymore improvement to come? Skiffle, on the other hand, has only had four career starts and ran in some top races last season. She was 5th in the Oaks, but was also beaten into third by another of today’s big players – Somehow – at the Curragh last time out. Based on that run she’s got 7 lengths to find with the O’Brien horse so really the safe call here is to stick with SOMEHOW. This 4 year-old also already had two runs this season and got back to winning ways last time out at Gowran Park in a Listed race. She should be spot-on now for this and being rated 5lbs+ higher than the other runners is the one they’ve all got to aim at.
2.55 – Longholes Handicap Cl2 6f ITV
13/13 – Had won between 2-5 times before
11/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/13 – Had won over 6f before
11/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/13 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
10/13 – Carried 9-1 or less
7/13 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
6/13 – Returned between 10/1-12/1 in the betting
6/13 – Won last time out
5/13 – Irish bred
3/13 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
1/13 – Winning favourites
Just 1 placed horse from stall 2 in the last 9 runnings
7 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 9 or higher
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 14/1
STATZONE VERDICT: Another tough handicap here, but another that has some decent trends attached to it. With 11 of the last 13 winners aged 4 or 5 years-old then this narrows down the 16 runner field to 9. Add in that 10 of the last 13 winners carried 9-1 or less and where also placed in the top 5 last time out then of the 9 remaining we are left with just two – GUNMETAL (e/w) and EAST STREET REVENUE (e/w). Gunmetal is a 4 year-old from the Charles Hills camp that heads here at the top of his game after an easy 2 ¾ length win over course and distance last month. Yes, he’s up 8lbs for that win, but he did it nicely and there should be more to come. We know he’s proven at the track and Andrea Atzeni continues in the saddle. The other pick – East Street Revenue – caught the eye last time when a fast-finishing second at Beverley on his first run back and off just 5lbs higher looks dangerous. That was also over 5f, so this step up in trip looks a huge plus, based on the way he finished last time, while the ground should be ideal – looks a big player. Of the rest, the Roger Charlton-trained Projection, plus the other course and distance winners in the field – Captain Colby and Eastern Impact – are two more that command respect with good last time out runs under their belts.
3.35 – Qipco 1,000 Guineas Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies) Cl1 1m ITV
14/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/15 – Had won a Group race before
12/15 – Had won between 2-3 times before
11/15 – Won their previous race
10/15 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or less
9/15 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
8/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/15 – Yet to win a race over a mile (or further)
7/15 – Returned a double-figure price
7/15 – Favourites unplaced
7/15 – Won on their seasonal reappearance
7/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
7/15 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
5/15 – Previous Group One winners
5/15 – Irish-trained winners
4/15 – Won by a US bred horse
4/15 – Went onto win the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot
4/15 – Won by the favourite
3/15 – French-trained winners
3/15 – Went onto finish fourth in the Epsom Oaks
3/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/15 – Went onto win the Epsom Oaks (Kazzia 2002, Minding 2016)
No placed horses from stall 1 in the last 9 runnings
6 of the last 9 winners came between stalls 2-8 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 10/1
1,000 Guineas Facts
Owner Hamdam Al Maktoum has won the race 5 times (1990, 1991, 1995, 2000 & 2009)
Frankie Dettori has ridden the ridden the winner 3 times (1998, 2002 & 2011)
Ryan Moore has ridden the winner 3 times (2012, 2015, 2016)
Godolphin have won the race 3 times (1998, 2002 & 2011)
Aidan O’Brien has trained three winners, Virginia Waters (1995), Homecoming Queen (2012), Minding (2016)
STATZONE VERDICT: Daban won by ¾ lengths that day, and considering she’d only won a maiden on the AW at Kempton before that, then connections clearly like her and think she’s up to this sort of level. She’s also entered in the Group One Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot so a win here would further cement her claims ahead of that race in June, while she will be looking to become the first Nell Gwyn winner to go onto land the Guineas since Speciosa in 2006.
The Roger Charlton-trained Fair Eva had a tall reputation last season after wins at Haydock and Ascot, but failed to build on that with two odds-on favourite defeats at Group Two level at the backend of last season. Yes, she might be better now upped to a mile and with another winter under her belt, but being beaten favourite the last twice would send out alarm bells for me in a race of this quality.
So, really, the one they’ve all got to beat here is RHODODENDRON. Another from the powerful Aidan O’Brien yard, this 3 year-old landed the Group One Dubai Fillies Mile here last October in classy fashion and there should be more to come. That was her first run over a mile and with plenty of stamina (Galileo) in her pedigree then she’s sure to appreciate even further in the coming months. She’s entered in the Epsom & Irish Oaks, not to mention the Coronation Stakes.
Yes, another of the runners here – Intricately – beat her at the Curragh two starts back, but the ground was softer than ideal that day and so providing the Newmarket area stays relatively dry in the days leading up to the race she should be getting her perfect ground conditions. Being that she’s one of just two proven winners over this mile trip (Sea Grace the other), and that she’s proven at the track then well take her to give both jockey Ryan Moore and trainer Aidan O’Brien their fourth winners in this race.
Talaayeb would be a top winner for the up-and-coming Owen Burrows yard and with the champion jockey Jim Crowley in the saddle is sure to have her supporters. She’s unbeaten from one run when winning here back in September so we know the track suits and despite that only being a maiden she did it nicely (2 ½ lengths). Connections clearly feel she’s up to this sort of level after just one run and the reports are she’s done well over the winter.
Of the rest, the other O’Brien runners – Roly Poly, Hydrangea and Winter (been well-backed this week) are others to note as the stable are no strangers to winning this big Classics with their second or third strings, but the safe call is to stick with their main hope Rhododendron.
That should be all you need, if you can’t make the right decisions with all that info, there’s no helping you!
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