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8 LIVE Races Spread Across Three Venues This Saturday……….
Plenty going on this Saturday with eight races spread across three tracks this weekend – Musselburgh, Haydcock and Newmarket are the courses in question.
At Newmarket, the John Sunley Memorial Handicap is the feature race – a contest that trainer Mark Johnston won 12 months ago. Up at Musselburgh we’ve the Scottish Sprint Cup to take in too – a race 11 of the last 14 winners carried 9-1 or less in, while 9 of the last 14 winners came from a double-figure stall.
However, Haydock is the main meeting with four races there that include the Group Three contests – The John Of Gaunt Stakes and Pinnacle Stakes, plus there is Listed Class action in the shape of the Achilles Stakes.
As always, we’ve all the LIVE ITV races covered from a trends and stats angle here at STATZONE, plus our verdicts on each contest – use these key trends to find the best past profiles of past winners.
Let’s get started!
Saturday 9th June 2018
Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)
3.05 – Animal Health Trust Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 7f ITV4
One previous running
Trainer Mark Johnston has a 20% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer William Haggas has a 21% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer David Baron has a 20% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Hannon is just 12 from 132 with his 3 year-olds at the track
STATZONE VERDICT: Just the one previous running of this race to go on. With only 12 winning 3 year-olds from this last 132 sent to post then trainer Richard Hannon doesn’t actually do that well here. He does, however, have a leading chance with Yafta to try and improve those stats – a horse that has finished in the top two in five of his 6 races (2 wins). Stamina would, however, be a concern after being a beaten favourite over this trip on his only try over it. A recent win over 6f was encouraging though so it’s easy to see why connections are giving it another crack. The David Baron yard do well here with their 3 year-olds (20%) so their Fake News is a contender. He won well at Wolves last time out but conditions here will be a lot different, plus he’s up 8lbs and the second that day has done little to frank the form since. Stormbringer and RUFUS KING look to have lively outside chances too – especially the last-named with Ryan Moore booked to ride. This 3 year-old will find this drop in grade much easier than last time but, having said that, still ran well to be third that day at Epsom. The quicker ground will help and although he’s got to give weight away does set the standard as the highest-rated in the field (103). The Mark Johnston yard also boast a decent 20% record at the track with their 3 year-olds. Stoute’s Georgian Manor is sure to be popular too after a smooth maiden win at Beverley last time out. Connections clearly feel he’s up to the rise in grade and must be one for the shortlist but this would be a big step up in grade. So, it’s CAVATINA that gets the second vote here. This 3 year-old filly was a good winner at Leicester last time over this trip and looks worth a try in this better grade. A 9lb rise looks a tad harsh but she did it well and Haggas is another with a good record at the track with this age group (21%) – she can go well.
3.40 – John Sunley Memorial Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m6f ITV4
One previous running
Trainer Mark Johnston won this race 12 months ago
Horse from stall 12 won this race 12 months ago
Trainer Mark Johnston has a 21% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Josie Gordon is 0 from 15 riding older horses at the track
STATZONE VERDICT: Only one past running to go on here but with trainer Mark Johnston winning the pot 12 months ago , and also having a decent 21% record at the track with his 4+ year-olds, then his two runners – SOLIDER IN ACTION and ADDICTED TO YOU appeal. The last-named looks their better hope according to the betting and that’s no surprise after a nice win at Chelmsford last time out. That was over 2m so we know he stays further than this 1m6f trip but the 10 length victory couldn’t have been more impressive. Back on the turf here but the quick ground will suit and a 10lb rise for that win looks fair enough – there could be more to come. Their other runner – Soldier In Action – has been a tad disappointing of late but as a result is dropping down the ratings and off 101 is now looking very attractive and looks a nice each-way option if bouncing back to form. Of the rest, course winners Great Hall, Quloob, Fire Jet, Amazing Red and Mark Hopkins are others to note, while the consistent Bryon Flyer, with Ryan Moore booked to ride looks sure to be involved at the business end too.
Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)
2.15 Betway Middle Distance Handicap Cl3 (3yo) 1m4f ITV4
Trainer Hugo Palmer has a 20% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Ralph Beckett has a 16% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey William Buick has a 24% record riding 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Richard Kingscote has a 22% record riding 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Silvestre De Sousa has a 22% record riding 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Oisin Murphy is just 3 from 36 riding 3 year-olds at the track
STATZONE VERDICT: A very tight race here with just six runners heading to post and really it looks as if they all have a squeak. Sea Youmzain and Jack Regan are the two recent winners in the field but as a result are up 6lbs and 5lbs, plus also upped in grade. Of the two Sea Youmzain might have more to offer but I would be concerned that his only try over this 1m4f trip resulted in being beaten favourite. Star Of Southwold was last seen running fifth in the Lingfield Derby Trial, but was 15 lengths back that day and despite this being a much easier grade I think he’s still got a bit to prove over this distance. The Ralph Beckett camp must feel that Podemos is better than what he’s shown to date and with just three runs should have more to come. The stable also has a fair 16% record with their 3 year-olds here and should not be far away. Another yard that do well here at the track is Hugo Palmer (20%) – they run Morning Skye. However, his sole win has been on the AW and is yet to run over this far. So, that leaves us with the Godolphin runner – NIGHT STORY. Yes, the horse has been poor of late but being the only proven distance winner in the field must count for something. He’s only had one run on the turf too so that last run would have taught him a fair bit and is also down a pound. William Buick also does well riding 3 year-olds here (24%) strike-rate so there cold be some value in giving this Charlie Appleby runner another chance.
2.50 Betway Pinnacle Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m3f ITV4
15/15 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
13/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/15 – Rated 92 or higher
11/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Had won over 1m4f before
11/15 – Aged 4 years-old
10/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/15 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
5/15 – Had run at Haydock before
4/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Roger Varian
2/15 – Trained by John Gosden
2/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1
STATZONE VERDICT: A decent Group Three to look forward to here. The German raider – Forsun – will be hard to assess but she’s a Listed winner in her homeland and has decent form on good ground. The champion jockey – Silvestre De Sousa – has also been booked to ride this 5 year-old so she can’t be totally discounted. However, with 11 of the last 15 winners aged 4, she does fall down on this trend. Okay, most of the runners in the race fit the bill here (4 years-old) but with 13 of the last 15 also finishing in the top three last time out then this knocks out a few more. We’ve seen four winning favourites in the last 15 runnings, while it’s generally a race the punters get right with 10 of the last 15 winners coming from the top three in the market. The Prescott horses are starting to fire and with a decent 36% record at the track with their runners their consistent Melinoe enters the mix. She’s a bit to find at the weights but is a solid handicapper that deserves a crack at this higher level – but she does look more likely to fill a place, rather than win. Another yard in cracking order is the William Haggas team and they also do very well here at Haydock with a 28% record with their older horses here. They run two – What A Home and MAM’SELLE. Both are respected but jockey bookings suggest the last-named is their main hope. James Doyle rides this 4 year-old, who should be coming to the boil after two runs this season. Last time she was tried over 1m6f but didn’t really get home so the drop back to 1m4f is a huge plus. She’s the first one for the shortlist. The 101-rated Titi Makfi and the 105-rated God Given are others to respect, especially the last-named Cumani runner as she’s the only proven course and distance winner in the field. She’ll be a lot fitter for a recent fourth at Ascot. Of the rest, the consistent Cribbs Causeway should be far away and looks a banker for placepot and each-way players and Company Asset is weighted to go well. However, the other one I like here is CRIMSON ROSETTE. This Charlie Fellowes-trained 4 year-old was a good winner last time at Doncaster and certainly looks an improver. She powered away to win a Class 3 Handicap at Doncaster last time and the step up to 1m2f looks likely to bring out even more. The second has since won to frank the form and with only six career runs on the turf looks to have plenty of scope for improvement.
3.25 Betway Achilles Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 5f ITV4
9/9 – Returned 14/1 or shorter
8/9 – Aged 5 or older
8/9 – Had raced in the last 10 weeks
8/9 – Won between 6-8 times before
8/9 – Didn’t win last time out
8/9 – Had won over 5f before
7/9 – Drawn between stalls 2-7 (inc)
6/9 – Had run at the course before
6/9 – Winning distance 1 length or less
6/9 – Had finished in the top 5 last time out
5/9 – Unplaced favourites
4/9 – Winning favourites
Final Venture (9/4) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 13/2
STATZONE VERDICT: Plenty of old sprint faces on show here. Last year’s winner – Final Venture – is a good place to start. This 6 year-old is one of just two proven course and distance winners in the field and after a close third last time out at York heads here in decent order. He’ll be cherry-ripe after three runs this season, but it is worth noting last year’s win came on soft ground. Trainer Robert Cowell took this in 2015 and he’ll be trying to add to that success with Encore D’Or and Blue Vega running for his yard. However, despite rarely running a bad race Blue Vega has been hard to win with, while Encore D’Or won’t find it easy giving weight to the others. Gracious John is the other proven course and distance winner in the field but is also another that has to give weight away so is overlooked. The 9 year-old Duke Of Firenze looks as if he’s still got a race in him but I just feel that might come at Handicap level with time now slightly catching up with him. The 101-rated Doctor Sardonicus can’t be ruled out and should not be far away either but might just be a better horse in the AW with 5 of his 7 career wins coming at one of the AW tracks. It’s the 8 year-old Muthmir that sets the clear standard off a rating of 111 and also after a fine fifth to the classy Battaash here in the Group Two Temple Stakes last time out. However, with just two wins from his last 16 races he’s not always an easy horse to catch right and might not be much value in the betting here. So, with that in mind, I also like here is JUDICIAL. Rated just 4lbs lower than Muthmir but at 6 year-olds has age on his side and could have more to come. He returned at HQ last time with a close second in the Group Three Palace House Stakes – a race that should have him spot-on for this. He sweated a bit before the race that day and also hung a bit in the closing stages so to run as well as he did with all that going on too further adds to how good a run it was. Of the rest, ALPHA DELPHINI, who is rated 105, was a close third behind Judicial last time too and is also worthy of an interest. This Bryan Smart runner has only been beaten more than 2 lengths in 6 of his last 7 races, while his only run here at the track resulted in a close third in the 2017 Group Two Temple Stakes – a repeat of that effort would see him go close.
4.00 Betway John Of Gaunt Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV4
14/15 – Rated 107 or higher
14/15 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
13/15 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
12/15 – Came from the top three in the betting
12/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Had won over 7f before
10/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/15 – Drawn in stall 3 or lower
9/15 – Favourites placed
9/15 – Had won at least 4 times before
5/15 – Had run at the track before
4/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 – Aged 9 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1
STATZONE VERDICT: With 13 of the last 15 winners drawn in stalls 6 or lower then of the 8 runners – Emmaus (7) and Dutch Connection (8) have this to overcome. However, of that pair Emmaus is a colt that could certainly have more to offer. This 4 year-old has won three of his four starts to date, including a smooth Listed class win at Leicester last time. There could be more to come but my only niggle is that all three career wins have been at Leicester, plus all three have come with some degree of cut underfoot. The Godolphin pair – Dutch Connection and D’bai – are hard split and they also won the race in 2016. The Charles Hills-trained Dutch Connection can be expected to improve for his excellent fourth in the Group One Lockinge Stakes last time out. This drop in grade makes him a big player and is also the highest-rated in the field. The yard has a decent 20% record with their older horses here too. The only concern would be the dreaded ‘bounce-factor’ with that recent good run coming off a 218 day break, while 10 of the last 15 winners were aged 4 or 5. D’bai ran a blinder to be second to the classy The Tin Man at Windsor last time out in a Listed race and should be better for it. He can go well but does probably have a bit to find at this level with wins to date coming in lower grades. Course and distance winner Muntadab is respected too, while Mr Owen and Larchmont Lad, whose yard had a third in this race 12 months ago, are others that are not too far behind the principles in terms of ratings. However, the call here is TABARRAK. This 5 year-old caught the eye when winning over course and distance here in the Listed Spring Trophy last time out and should have more to come. From 13 career runs on the turf, he’s finished in the top two 10 times (5 wins), with this 7f trip looking his best distance (4 wins), plus the Hannon camp boasts a decent 18% record with their older horses at the track.
Musselburgh Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)
1.55 – Edinburgh Gin’s Seaside Gin Handicap Cl3 (4yo+) 1m4 1/2f ITV4
No previous runnings
Trainer Rebecca Bastiman has a 20% (+23) record with her older horses at the track
Trainer Ralph Beckett is 1-from-1 with his older horses at the track
Trainer Tim Easterby is 5 from 65 with his older horses at the track
STATZONE VERDICT: Theglasgowwarrior and Dance King are proven course and distance winners here at the track but despite that being a plus do have a bit to find on these terms with a few of the others. However, this looks to rest between the Ralph Beckett-trained Western Duke and the William Haggas runner Reverend Jacobs. The first-named was a fair third on his return run at Ascot last time and with the yard 1-from-1 with their runners here then they generally don’t make the long trip up for nothing. Everything points to a big run. The call, however, is REVEREND JACOBS. The Haggas team are another that don’t often leave empty-handed when running here at Musselburgh. This 4 year-old returned with a gutsy neck win at York last time out and should have more to come. Yes, he’s up 8lbs for that but this extra ½ a furlong should help and you just get the feeling there’s more in the locker.
2.30 – Edinburgh Gin Scottish Sprint Cup Handicap Cl2 (4yo+) 5f ITV4
13/14 – Won over 5f before
11/14 – Favourites that finished in the top 5
11/14 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
11/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/14 – Carried 9-1 or less
9/14 – Had won between 2-5 times before
9/14 – Came from a double-figure stall
9/14 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
9/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/14 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
6/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by Bryan Smart
Line Of Reason (11/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 16/1
STATZONE VERDICT: LINE OF REASON was a good winner of this race 12 months ago and would have had this as a target during this first half of the season. Okay, some average runs this term so he needs to bounce back but on a plus and as a result of that is running off a 7lb lower rating. He won from draw 8 last year so 7 this time looks fine, while Joe Fanning, who rode him last year, is also back in the saddle. He had Caspian Prince (4th), El Astronaute (7th), Orion’s Bow (11th) and Bowsen Fred (16th) in behind that day too. Of that bunch, El Astronaute looks to have improved this season with a string of solid efforts and a bold bid from the front from this speedy sort is expected. Move In Time is another that is having a good time of it at the moment. This 10 year-old is defying his age and was very impressive when winning by 3 ½ lengths at HQ last time out. More is needed here off another 7lb hike in the ratings but is a sprinter in rude health at the moment. Cases can certainly be made for Major Jumbo and Copper Knight – however, the other two I like here are FERNDALE and DARK SHOT. Ferndale represents the Bryan Smart yard who have liked to target this race in the past. With just 8-4 he gets in with a featherweight and was only beaten 3 ¼ lengths last time out at York. Dropped 2lbs for that run gives him every chance of improving on that effort and draw 8 looks okay. Dark Shot was only out last Saturday, when fifth in the Dash at Epsom. This 5 year-old still ran well that day and didn’t get the clearest of runs in the final stages. He’s closely-matched with El Astronaute, based on his neck second to that horse at York last month, and does also have several of the key trends on his side, including age, draw and weight.
That should be all you need, if you can’t make the right decisions with all that info, there’s no helping you!
Also published on Medium.