Welcome to the BetBright STATZONE, where we give you the stats and you make the decisions!
The 2018 Glorious Goodwood Festival continues on Thursday (2nd Aug) as the meeting enters the hallway stage – looking at the LIVE ITV races, we’ve got everything covered from a trends and stats angle.
The Group Two Lillie Langtry Stakes is one of the feature contests on day three, while we also get a chance to see some of the potential stars of the future in the Group Two Richmond Stakes, But the main event on Thursday is the Group One Nassau Stakes as some of the best middle distance fillies around head to post – did you know 12 of the last 14 winners came from the top three in the betting?
As always, we are on hand to take you through each of the LIVE races, highlighting the main trends – use these to narrow down the runners and pin-point the best profiles of past winners of the race.
Anyway, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on STATZONE with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races at Glorious Goodwood – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the big fields – So, let’s get started!
2018 Glorious Goodwood Trends
DAY THREE – Thursday 2nd August 2018
1.50 – Matchbook Best Value Exchange Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m1f192y ITV
14/15 – Had won between 1-3 times before
14/15 – Winning distance – 1 ¾ lengths or less
14/15 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
13/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Rated between 91-99
11/15 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
10/15 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
10/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/15 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
8/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/15 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
6/15 – Had raced at Goodwood before
5/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Trained by Mark Johnston (2 of last 5 runnings)
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Trained by John Gosden
3/15 – Ridden by Martin Dwyer
2/15 – Ridden by William Buick
No winner from stall 1 in the last 12 runnings
Stall 14 has been placed in 5 of the last 12 runnings
8 of the last 12 winners came from stall 11 or lower
5 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 4-7 (inc)
Good Omen (8/1) won the race 12 months ago
STATZONE VERDICT: This is a race trainer Mark Johnston has won three times since 2009, including twice in the last five renewals so his runners should always be respected. He’s got Ventura Knight entrred but his Communique looks the most interesting of his two runners, with the in-form Silvestre De Sousa riding. He won last time out at Newmarket in gutsy fashion and a 5lb rise for that looks fair. Al Jellaby has done little wrong in his five races to date. He’s yet to finish out of the first three and has gone close with two second of late. However, he’s been a beaten favourite now the last twice too and is stepping up from a mile to this 1m2f and even though his running style suggests it will suit this is also a step up in grade. Recent winners Rock Eagle and New Show are others to note but the two yards that have decent strike-rates with their 3 year-olds at the track are William Haggas (27%) and Gary Moore (32%). Haggas runs COMPLETION and despite flopping at Royal Ascot last time out in the Britannia Stakes did take a hold that day and also didn’t get the best of runs. Before that he’d finished second to Crack On Crack On at Haydock and that form has since been franked by the winner. He’s had a 42 day break to get over that last run and looks to have more to give – if bouncing back to the form prior to his Ascot run looks decent value to me. Gary Moore has SING OUT LOUD entered, and we know this 3 year-old likes the course, having been first and third here in his last two races. He gets into this better race with a light weight (8-1) and is another that has been freshened-up with a 48 day break.
2.25 – Qatar Lillie Langtry Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m6f ITV
13/15 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
12/15 – Had raced 2 or more times already that season
11/15 – Finished in the top three last time out
11/15 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/15 – Had run at Goodwood before
8/15 – Unplaced favourites
7/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Ridden by Tom Queally
8 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 4-6 (inc)
Endless Time (5/2) won the race 12 months ago
STATZONE VERDICT: The 3 year-olds in this race get a handy 11lbs from the older horses in the race so with that in-mind the Roger Varian-trained Pilaster is sure to be popular. This filly was an easy 6 length winner at Kempton last time out and the fact connections are pitching him at this much higher level after just three runs suggests he’s above average. He’s up in trip to 1m6f too but breeding suggests he’s worth a crack over it and certainly wasn’t stopping over 1m4f last time. She looks a promising sort but in a race like this her inexperience might just catch her out – at the prices she’s not great value. The other popular runner in the field will be the Luca Cumani-trained God Given – a hose they’ve booked Ryan Moore for too. He was a close second at Haydock in the Lancashire Oaks last time and stayed on well to suggest this longer trip is within range so is certainly one of the main players here. However, PRECIOUS RAMOTSWE was only just back in third that day and so could be the value. She won over this trip the time before at York (Group Three) so we know the step up in trip will help and Frankie is back riding her too. After around six weeks off between her race in May and her last outing then we can expect a bit of improvement too. Isabel De Urbina got up late to beat another Cumani runner at Pontefract last time, but the form of that win has taken a few knocks since and the selection has also beaten her this season (4 lengths). Of the rest, LUBINKA looks interesting now upped in trip and will head here fresher than most. She probably found the Musidora trip of 1m2f a bit on the sharp side last time and being a 3 year-old gets weight from the older horses. Maid Up is a proven course winner that has won her last three, while with decent trainer records at the track the William Haggas-trained Maid To Remember and the Marcus Tregoning runner Dance The Dream are others to consider.
3.00 – Qatar Richmond Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6f ITV
15/16 – Had won 1 or 2 races before
15/16 – Had won over 5 or 6f before
14/16 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
13/16 – Never raced at Goodwood before
13/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Placed last time out
11/16 – Won by a Feb or March foal
11/16 – Won their previous race
8/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon (inc last 6 of last 8 runnings)
2/16 – Trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam
3 of the last 12 winners came from stall 2
8 of the last 12 horses from stall 2 finished in the top 3
3 of the last 12 winners came from stall 6
11 of the last 12 winners came from stall 2-7 (inc)
Barraquero (4/1) won the race 12 months ago
STATZONE VERDICT: Anything the Aidan O’Brien camp run here should be noted as the yard have a 50% record with their 2 year-olds at the track so his Land Force would certainly be big player after running a close second in the Norfolk Stakes in Ascot and following that up with a Listed success in Ireland. The O’Brien yard have actually only won this race once before though and that came back in 2000. The Richard Fahey-trained SABRE is one I like the look of after running on well over 5f last time in the Windsor Castle. This step up to 6f looks a good move by connections and he would certainly having a leading chance if running to that form again here. The 108-rated MARIE’S DIAMOND also sets a fair standard and is another that will be popular with Mark Johnston and Silvestre de Sousa teaming-up here – the yard won this in 2012. He was a decent second at the Curragh (Group Two) to the O’Brien-trained Van Beethoven but improved on that by landing a Group Three at the same track last month. With six career runs he heads here as one of the most experienced in the race and being a proven winner over this trip then it’s hard not seeing him involved for a yard that often do well at this meeting. With seven wins in the race (senior and junior) then the Hannon stable have by far the best recent record in the race – they run Neverland Rock. Frankie Dettori has been booked to ride and he wasn’t disgraced when third in the Group Two Superlative Stakes at HQ last time. That came over 7f but after fading in the closing stages the drop back to 6f will help here and has shown his liking for a quick surface. It would be no surprise to see him go well. Of the rest, Konchek has the form to go close too after running second in the Group Two July Stakes at HQ last time. However, he’s yet to win over this 6f trip and after leading for much of the way last time looked vulnerable to a finisher and that might just be the case again here. Sporting Chance was further back in fifth in that July Stakes last time but was very slowly away that day so with a better start can’t be ruled out either as he actually did well to get within 4 ½ lengths of the winner that day – James Doyle rides this Simon Crisford-trained runner.
3.35 – Qatar Nassau Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m1f192y ITV
14/14 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the market
13/14 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
12/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/14 – Aged either 3 or 4 years-old
11/14 – Winning Favourites
11/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/14 – Had won a Group One race previously
10/14 – Won between 2-4 times before
9/14 – Had won over 1m2f previously
4/14 – Won by the Aidan O’Brien yard
3/14 – Ridden by Tom Queally
3/14 – Trained by John Gosden
2/14 – Won by the Sir Michael Stoute yard
Winter (10/11 fav) won the race 12 months ago
9 of the last 12 winners were drawn 7 or lower
Stalls 1, 6 and 7 have won 8 of the last 12 renewals
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2
STATZONE VERDICT: Only six runners but still a decent little renewal. With 12 of the last 14 winners aged 3 or 4 years-old then that would be a negative for the 5 year-old in the race – Wilamina. The Epsom Oaks runner-up Wild Illusion would be interesting now back in trip after not quite getting home in recent runs over further. She was a fair fourth in the 1,000 Guineas to Billesdon Brook too, but this 1m2f trip looks ideal after running out of steam over 1m4f in the Oaks and Ribblesdale Stakes recently. The only negative would be that 9 of the last 14 winners had won over this trip in the past and he hasn’t. Billesdon Brook was the big-priced winner of the 1,000 Guineas earlier this season but failed to build on that last time in the Coronation Stakes at Ascot. The longer trip is a bit of an unknown, but her breeding indicates it’s worth a crack, but is another that is yet to win over it. Aidan O’Brien has a fine record in the race and has won the last two runnings – so his proven course winner Rhododendron, will be trying to make it three. This 4 year-old is the highest-rated in the field but is a bit of an up and down character these days and ran no sort of race last time out in the Queen Anne Stakes at Ascot (9th). He’s back up to 1m2f here and is a G1 winner at this level so is certainly capable but given his recent run it’s hard to back him with any confidence. Veracious ran the classy Alpha Centauri to 7 lengths in the Coronation Stakes last time out but is another that is up in trip here, from a mile to 1m2f. She’s only had three career runs so there looks to be more to come from this Frankel filly and Frankie Dettori rides. The yard has a good record in the race and clearly feel she’s up to the task of staying further. One horse we know gets the distance though is the Group One Pretty Polly Stakes winner – URBAN FOX – she’s eon of only a handful in the race with proven winning form over the trip. This 4 year-old powered away to win that Curragh race well last time out on her first try over the trip. She loves the fast ground and having beaten the Epsom Oaks winner so easily last time then on that form should have the measure of the Oaks runner-up, Wild Illusion, too.
That should be all you need, if you can’t make the right decisions with all that info, there’s no helping you!
Also published on Medium.