Welcome to the BetBright STATZONE, where we give you the stats and you make the decisions!
The 2017 Glorious Goodwood Festival gets going on Tuesday (1st Aug) and we get underway with a cracking opening day card – looking at the LIVE ITV races, we’ve got everything covered from a trends and stats angle.
The Vintage Stakes and Lennox Stakes are two of the highlights, but the day one action has the recently upgraded Group One Goodwood Cup as it’s feature – a race the popular Big Orange will be looking to win for the third year in a row!
As always, we are on hand to take you through each of the LIVE races, highlighting the main trends – use these to narrow down the runners and pin-point the best profiles of past winners of the race.
Anyway, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on STATZONE with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races at Glorious Goodwood – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the big fields – So, let’s get started!
2017 Glorious Goodwood Trends
DAY ONE – Tuesday 1st August 2017
1.50 – Matchbook Betting Exchange Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m1f192y ITV
14/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/15 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
13/15 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
13/15 – Had won at least 3 times already during their career
12/15 – Carried 8-11 or more
11/15 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Had run at Goodwood before
10/15 – Unplaced favourites
10/15 – Unplaced last time out
9/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/15 – Trained by Mark Johnston
3/15 – Won their last race
2/15 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/15 – Winning favourites (1 co-fav)
Fire Fighting (8/1 co-fav) won the race 12 months ago
9 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 9 or higher
8 of the last 11 winners came from a double-figure stall
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1
STATZONE VERDICT: A tough race to open the 2017 Glorious Goodwood Festival with, but it’s also one with several leading trends to apply. With 14 of the last 15 winners aged 4 or 5 this is a good place to start – of the 18 runners we’ve six that are aged 6 or older. The same amount had won previously over this 1m2f trip, while 13 of the last 15 winners had raced at least four times already that season. In terms of weight carried then 12 of the last 15 winners won with 8-11 or more, while 11 of the last 15 had run at Goodwood before too. 9 of the last 11 winners won from stalls 9 or higher too. It’s also a race the Mark Johnston camp have cracking record in – winning it 5 times in the last 15 years, including 12 months ago, but with no runners this year they are giving another yard a chance! It’s only been a fair race for the favourites with just 2 market leaders from the last 15 going in, but a massive 10 of the last 15 jollies have been unplaced too. The likes of Garcia, with Ryan Moore riding, UAE Prince, from the Roger Varian camp and Khairaat, who has won three of her last four, are all bound to be popular. However, they are all lightly-raced this season and all fall down on the ‘having raced at least 4 times that season’ trend. The Queen’s Fabricate and Bravery tick most of the main trends, but have a bit to prove over this trip, with all their wins to date coming over shorter – if they can cope with the extra yardage – and connections clearly feel they can – then they are ones for the shortlist too. But, the two that stand out based on the trends are SPEED COMPANY (e/w) & EDDYSTONE ROCK (e/w) The first-named comes from the John Quinn camp and after winning at Ayr two starts back was certainly not disgraced last time when a very close fifth of 12 in a decent handicap over in Ireland. With just 9-1 to carry he’s interesting, but, yes, would need to overcome draw 1 – which looks to be the only real trend against him. Eddystone Rock is another that needs to get over a low draw (5), but certainly ticks most of the other main trends. He stays further than this 1m2f trip and was only beaten 2 ½ lengths in the John Smith’s Cup last time out off this mark.
2.25 – Qatar Vintage Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV
14/15 – Had won over 6f or 7f before
14/15 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/15 – Had 2 or 3 previous career runs
11/15 – Won last time out
10/15 – Won by a March or later foal
10/15 – Placed favourites
9/15 – Winning favourites
8/15 – Ran at either Newmarket (5) or Ascot (2) last time out
7/15 – Had won 2 previous races
4/15 – Had run at Goodwood before
4/15 – Trained by Richard Hannon
3/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3 of the last 8 winners came from stall 9
War Decree (6/4 fav) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/4
STATZONE VERDICT: Three of the last 8 winners came from stall 9, but it would be a shock if that trend continues here with the outsider of the field – Finsbury Park – filling that berth this year. 14 of the last 15 finished first or second last time out, but that applies to nine of the 11 runners, but with 13 of the last 15 winners having raced at least 2 or 3 times previously then the Aidan O’Brien runner – Seahenge – who is bound to be well-fancied, falls down here with just one career run. Yes, that was a win and he could be anything, while it’s worth pointing out the yard are 3 from 6 with their 2 year-olds at the track. He’s also an April-born colt so there should be a lot more to come though, but he only got home by a neck that day and at the prices doesn’t look much value. Expert Eye also falls into that bracket with just one career outing. That was a win too, when getting the job done well at Newbury, so is sure to be popular, but again looks little value. Recent winners Cold Stare and Curiosity are others to note, while with just two juvenile winners from their last 26 at the track the Marcus Tregoning-trained Watheer is overlooked. In contrast, the Charlie Appleby team have a cracking 26% strike-rate (the best on offer here) with their 2 year-olds at the course so their ZAMAN (e/w), who has already won twice in his career, looks an interesting runner. The Godolphin team put the first-time blinkers on here too and he certainly wasn’t disgraced when running the classy Gustav Klimt to 1 ½ lengths last time at Newmarket in the Superlative Stakes. The Johnston-trained Mildenberger is another interesting runner after winning both her maiden starts impressively. We can expect him to make a bold bid from the front and despite this being a big step up in grade looks likely to go well. But the value in the race – along with the Godolphin runner – could be JAMES GARFIELD (e/w). This March-born 2 year-old lost his maiden tag last time at Doncaster by an easy lengths, but before that don’t forget she was only beaten 1 ½ lengths at Royal Ascot in the Windsor Castle. That recent run would have given him a lot more confidence and despite this being a step back up in grade there could be a lot more to come.
3.00 – Qatar Lennox Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV
15/15 – Had won at least 2 times before
14/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Had 2 or more previous runs already that season
12/15 – Had won over 7f before
12/15 – Previous Group Race winners
11/15 – Had previously won a Group 2 or 3
10/15 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/15 – Had run at Goodwood before
7/15 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Trained by Richard Hannon
The last 8 winners came from stalls 7 or lower
3 of the last 6 winners came from stall 5
Dutch Connection (9/4 fav) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1
STATZONE VERDICT: A cracking renewal of this race. Last year’s winner Dutch Connection will be looking to follow-up and is one of just three past course and distance winners in the field. However, he’s rather lost his way this season and, in fact, his last career win came in this – 6 runs back. 50% of the last 6 winners came from stall 5 so another Godolphin runner – DREAM CASTLE (e/w) – is a worth a shout too. This 3 year-old gets weight all-round from the others and hasn’t been disgraced when fifth in the 2,000 Guineas and Jersey Stakes this season. The ‘boys in blue’ also have Jungle Cat and Home of the Brave running, with the last-named certainly a player. This tough 5 year-old has won his last two in decent fashion and is worth another crack at Group Two level – but it is worth pointing out he’s yet to win from six tries at G1 or G2 level. The powerful O’Brien camp send over two, but their Spirit Of Valour, who was second in the Jersey Stakes and then beat another of today’s runners – So Beloved – at the Curragh last time, is a big player. He’s a proven Group Two winner and Ryan Moore is an obvious plus in the saddle. Librisa Breeze is another that heads here with a huge say after a close fourth in the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot. He’s a classy grey, but with this being his first run at Goodwood that would be a slight negative, while despite running well in Group company it’s still worth pointing out all his career wins have so far been in handicap company. So, that leaves us with LIMATO. The clear highest-rated in the field and heads here after a fine second in the July Cup. Yes, he’s got to give 3lbs to Spirit Of Valour and 6lbs to Dream Castle, so it should be tight between them, but he’s the class act in the field and should appreciate this drop down to Group Two class after running his last nine races at the highest level.
3.35 – Qatar Goodwood Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 2m ITV
13/15 – Placed last time out
12/15 – Aged 5 or older
11/15 – Had 2 or more runs already that season
11/15 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before
10/15 – Had won over at least 2m before
8/15 – Ran at Ascot last time out
9/15 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
9/15 – Had run at Goodwood before
8/15 – Winning favourites
7/15 – Won their previous race
4/15 – Won by Godolphin
2/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/15 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
2/15 – Trained by Michael Bell
Big Orange (11/4) has won the race for the last 2 years
10 of the last 11 winners came from stall 10 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1
STATZONE VERDICT: Some old faces here in what is the opening day’s feature contest, but really it will be a shock if BIG ORANGE isn’t taking this. He was a recent winner of the Ascot Gold Cup, in what turned out to be an epic battle with Order Of St George, but he’s also won this race for the past two seasons and there is every reason to think he can go in again and land a famous three-timer. Frankie Dettori is back in the saddle, but knows the horse well and his front-running style will make him hard to pass again here. Yes, some may think that he had a tough race last time at Ascot, but he’s had a 40 day break to get over that effort and with just three runs this term should have no excuses on that front. If there was a slight concern it would be if conditions came up soft or worse as his form with that sort of ground reads 4-6-5-4, so we’ll have to see what happens on that score, but at the moment the underfoot conditions look fine and he’s the call. Of the rest, recent Northumberland Plate winner – Higher Power – is a consistent sort that has been placed in the top three in all his last 10 races. But he was 5 lengths behind Big Orange at Sandown two starts ago so has that ground to make up. Stadivarius has won three of his last 4, including the Group Two Queen’s Vase last time out. He gets a stonking 13lbs from Big Orange so that will help, but even with that, and based on the current ratings, the Gosden horse still has 8lbs to find. Pallasator, Sheikzayeroad, US Army Ranger and Wicklow Brave are other regulars in these sort of races and look players to hit the frame, but it’s hard to see beyond Big Orange making it three wins in this race.
That should be all you need, if you can’t make the right decisions with all that info, there’s no helping you!